Simpler Sentiment – Weekly Wrap Up 9/30/16

The S&P 500 saw some day-to-day volatility this week, but at 2170 is now just a couple of points above last week’s close as it. The Nasdaq 100 is up a bit as well, but that has it on pace for the second highest close ever after last Thursday.

Actual volatility continues to grind higher climb, while the VIX sits at 12.72, back down toward last week’s level. Our traders had a mixed outlook at the start of the week, and the SPX has seen both sides of that mark during the week despite finishing out with today’s gains.

John is bullish with the quarter end and new quarter buying next week. “More bad news – better buy the dip” he says with a laugh.

Carolyn remains bullish as well, “as long as we hold the 9/27 low… guess that just means bullish”.

Henry is glad to see some volatility back in the market this week, but points out that we remain range-bound. “Indexes offer some potential topping patterns but remain resilient.” He is looking to play that range bound action through the election. But is looking for directional plays in individual names. “Individual names have been a little easier directionally and I’ve been working to balance long ideas in AAPL and GOOGL with short ideas in NFLX and TSLA.”

Chris points out that “most major markets keep hugging their lower trendlines on a 78 minute chart. I think next week we get some kind of breakdown.”

Tucker is looking toward the positive action in the semiconductor sector, but isn’t sure if it is enough to push the major indexes to new highs. “The NASDAQ has broken through resistance, however the Dow need to breakout above 18600 and the S&P 500 need to break above the 2182 level for the trend to continue.”

David says that “every signal still indicates that the move up from the February low is still ongoing. The question is whether the S&P 500’s move down from its August high is complete and the uptrend has resumed or whether it needs more time travelling either sideways or down before the uptrend resumes.”

You can’t argue with what the market is actually giving you. If you are fighting the tape you are losing money, even if you are eventually “right”. Trading isn’t about being right, it’s about making money. That being said it is wise to be ready for the eventually pullback, which will come. So watch the triggers and the levels. Be ready to quickly and dispassionately cut losers and follow the market where it takes us.

Coming Up Next Week:

Trade The Election 2016

Join John F. Carter and Raghee Horner to discover how traders with over 50 years combined experience are preparing to take advantage of the upcoming election chaos.

Free Webinar on Wednesday, October 5th @ 7:00 pm Central.

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann has been involved professionally with the stock market for more than 15 years and specifically with derivatives for 12 of those. He started as a stock broker, but quickly moved on to options and futures trading. He spent some time as the Derivatives Product Manager for TD Ameritrade. He was the chief analyst and hedging strategist for OptionMonster. He has been an options trading educator and content provider for many years. His writing and analysis has been featured on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, TheStreet, CNBC and internationally. He has also designed and traded option and futures strategies for prop trading firms and hedge funds as well as managed accounts.

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