Simpler Sentiment – Weekly Wrap-Up 12/2/16

After last week’s new highs, the Indexes have given up some ground this week.

The S&P 500 closed out last week at an all-time high of 2213. As we head into the close we currently sit at 2190. The Russell 2000 ended last week at its record of 1347 and now trades 1314. The Nasdaq 100 slipped sharply the last two days and fell from 4900 to 4732.

The VIX was holding around 13 for the start of the week, but climbed above 14 yesterday and remains there now. The VXST, the 9-day Volatility Index, is barely below that at 13.98. This comes with the actual volatility down around 6 percent.

Our traders were divided about the action at the start of this week, and that hasn’t changed. Some see further losses ahead, while others are looking to buy the dip.

Trader’s View:

Chris: “I think the S&P 500 (SPX) will get pummeled next week. Maybe down to 2150 or under…”

Tony: “As long as the indices trade in lackadaisical quiet trade, I revert back to what I’ve been taught for far too many years. “Don’t sell a quiet market.” The presidential election caught investors under-invested. The longs will not be getting out in December, so the buyers will need to push prices up in thin-to-win type trade to find sellers.”

Carolyn: “I am neutral. The bigger picture is still bullish, but we are now seeing at least a short term pattern of lower lows and highs in this market an we’re in the position for at least a downside correction.”

David; “The big question is whether the advance in the S&P 500 is in the middle of a larger advance. Even if we do head further down, I expect it to be only a correction within an uptrend and for the November 4th low to hold. There is a Voodoo treeline near 2182 and sustained trade below that would warn that the deeper correction is underway, but deeper pullback now or not, the broader trend is still seen to be up.”

Neil: “Treasuries experienced their worst month on record since 1990, seeing 2 trillion dollars reallocated. I believe that money likely finds its new home in the equities market. The short version is the same as the last that I had – continue to view the dips as buying opportunities. In fact, I am looking for another during the 1st half of December as we then move closer to the traditional Santa Claus/ End of Year rally.”

Tucker: “There is a shift happening in the markets since the election. This has caused a divergence between the Dow and NASDAQ. Since the close on November 8th the Dow is up almost 5% and the NASDAQ is up only 1%. NASDAQ stocks like GOOGL, FB, AMZN and NFLX are all down 4-6% since November 8th. However, the financials, industrials/manufacturing, transportation and oil sectors are all up. Some stocks in these sectors are up 20+%. Remember, everything has cycles and this shift could be the beginning of a new cycle in stocks.”

Interesting reading from the week:

There is a divergence between bond and equity volatility. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-betting-volatility-spread-135924879.html

What kind of practice counts toward those 10,000 hours.http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/anders-ericsson-book-interview-peak-secrets-from/?utm_content=buffer936f4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

The difference between uncertainty and risk, and what that means for you. https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2016/11/future-probability-distribution/

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann has been involved professionally with the stock market for more than 15 years and specifically with derivatives for 12 of those. He started as a stock broker, but quickly moved on to options and futures trading. He spent some time as the Derivatives Product Manager for TD Ameritrade. He was the chief analyst and hedging strategist for OptionMonster. He has been an options trading educator and content provider for many years. His writing and analysis has been featured on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, TheStreet, CNBC and internationally. He has also designed and traded option and futures strategies for prop trading firms and hedge funds as well as managed accounts.