Market Extends Vacation Beyond Thanksgiving

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Alex Partida

Nov 25th 2022  .  3 min read

After being closed for Thanksgiving, the market returned in a lackluster way. The session was set to be a half day, and often when that is the case, especially after a holiday, the volume will be low, causing the market to stagnate.

Market still on holiday 

When the opening bell rang, there was a rapid divergence between the indexes, with the Nasdaq coming out the gate weak while the Dow Jones was strong. When there is a divergence in the indexes, it is hard for the overall market to move significantly. The indices need to move in unison for the market to cover any distance of significance.

Today the entire range of the S&P 500 futures came in around 15 points from the day’s low to the high of the day. The shortened day, and lack of volume, cause the sideways action. This leaves the market in the same range heading into the end of the month that it has been in as of late. 

Line in the sand for the market

Moving forward, the line in the sand will continue to be the psychological level of 4,000. The upside can continue if the S&P 500 futures trade above this level. For the market to see actual vulnerability, it will have to break below 4,000 and trade below once again. 

Next week’s economic events

After this short week of jam-packed market events, plenty of economic data is scattered throughout the following week. 

On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 10 a.m. Eastern. The median forecast for this event is right at 100. The scale that this data is announced on is on a scale where 100 is the middle. Anything above 100 will conclude that consumer confidence is higher than the benchmark. If the data reveals consumer confidence is below 100, it has fallen below the bar set in 1985. Consumer confidence is a leading indicator for investors as it can predict consumer spending patterns based on their confidence. Higher consumer expenditure is bullish for the market. 

On Wednesday, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) national employment report is scheduled to be released before the cash session opens at 8:15 a.m. Eastern. Later in the session, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Brookings Institution at 1:30 p.m. Anytime Powell is speaking; the market will be listening. Shortly after Powell takes the mic, Beige Book takes place at 2 p.m. to wrap up the economic events on Wednesday.

Biggest economic day next week

On Thursday, there is another jam-packed day of economic events. Starting the day off is Initial and Continuing jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. The most important report to watch during this time will be the Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. This report is so important because it is a macro indicator that the FED will use to influence their decision in December. Powell has called PCE by name as an indicator they will use, so the market will be looking at this data to get a feel for what may be soon to come by the FED. 

To wrap the week up on Friday, nonfarm payroll (NFP) will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, along with the Unemployment rate. 

These reports will undoubtedly impact the market, and every trader should have these events noted heading into the end of the month

Indexes mixed at the close

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were positive to close the session. The S&P 500 closed down 0.05%, losing 2 points, while the Nasdaq closed down 0.51%, declining 58 points. The Dow Jones did not follow, closing up 0.39%, adding 134 points.

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