Stronger Q1 GDP Growth Revives Wall Street’s Spirits


Simpler Trading Team

Jun 29th 2023  .  4 min read

Market Open: Economic Optimism Uplifts the Market Open

Today’s market opened to a promising start, propelled by positive indicators from the overnight futures. The boost from the futures was likely linked to news about the Federal Reserve’s stress tests which indicated that major U.S. banks are adequately fortified to withstand a severe recession. The stronger-than-expected economic performance inspired confidence among market participants, setting a bullish tone as the trading day unfolded.

The Day’s Market Phenomena

Not all sectors moved in unison today. The financial sector (+1.7%) outshone its counterparts, fuelled by the fact that all 23 banks successfully passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test. This win not only added a surge of confidence in the market but also resulted in stock appreciation across the banking industry. Riding on the coattails of this success were materials (+1.3%), energy (+1.1%), industrials (+0.9%), and real estate (+0.9%). Their strong showing paints a robust picture of the overall market health.

Meanwhile, tech stocks struggled for traction. Notable underperformers included Micron (MU), down 4.1%, despite expressing confidence about an industry bottom having already been formed. Its near-term revenue guidance was reportedly a letdown for many, with the reduced 2023 outlook for PC and smartphone unit volumes adding to the disappointment. This rippled into Intel’s (INTC) performance, which closed down 2.0%.

Individual Titans and Minnows

As for the individual stocks, the day’s leaderboard was dominated by JPMorgan Chase (JPM), surging 3.5%, and Goldman Sachs (GS), up 3.1%. On the other end of the spectrum, Micron (MU) and Intel (INTC) failed to find favor, with their shares ending down 4.1% and 2.0%, respectively. The success of the market behemoths and the struggle of some others perfectly encapsulate the day’s volatile dance of the stocks.

Prepping for Earnings Season

Investors eagerly await the earnings season, with several high-profile companies due to report in the coming weeks. One such company that has grabbed the spotlight is Dow component Nike (NKE). Nike is set to report its quarterly results after the close of trading tomorrow. Despite being down 3.3% year-to-date, compared to the S&P 500’s gain of 14.4%, investors are holding their breath, hoping that the sports giant will post numbers that could potentially rally its stock. Earnings seasons always bring about a sense of anticipation and unease, a time when balance sheets and income statements take center stage.

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Analyzing the Economic Tea Leaves

The macroeconomic picture continues to shape investor sentiment. The revised GDP for Q1 was a healthy 2.0%, up from the initial estimate of 1.3%, reflecting stronger consumer spending. Adding to the optimism, initial jobless claims for June came in at 239,000, down 26,000 from the previous week. This unexpected dip reinforces the resilience of the U.S. labor market and its contribution to economic stability.

On the flip side, inflation continues to loom as a possible storm cloud. The latest data shows the PCE climbing 4.9% from a year ago, stubbornly higher than the Fed’s 2% target. Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, has already signaled a possible tightening of monetary policy over the next few months, given the strong labor market and persistently high inflation. This could see borrowing costs rise and liquidity reduced, potentially influencing consumer financing rates and corporate borrowing costs.

Tomorrow, the market anticipates the release of the May Personal Income and Spending Report, including the PCE Price Index and the core-PCE Price Index. These data points will be crucial in shaping expectations about the Fed’s approach to inflation and its potential impact on the economic landscape.

Market Indices Synopsis

In a day of varied performances, US markets showed significant activity. The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a decisive gain, ending the session at 34,120.89, up by 268.23 points. Simultaneously, the S&P 500 index also witnessed a boost, closing at 4,393.73, an increase of 16.87 points.

In contrast, the tech-centric Nasdaq was the day’s underperformer, bucking the upward trend to close slightly down at 13,577.91, a dip of 13.85 points. Meanwhile, the broader US 30 and US 500 markets followed a similar trajectory to the Dow Jones, climbing to 34,121.20 (+268.5) and 4,394.20 (+17.3), respectively.