A Comprehensive Market Analysis By TG Watkins


Simpler Trading Team

Jun 16th 2023  .  10 min read


Welcome to this in-depth market update, where we will explore various indicators, charts, and trends that indicate a potential generational opportunity in the current market landscape. By examining multiple facets of the market, we can gain valuable insights that can inform our trading and investment strategies. Let’s delve into the nine key points discussed in this comprehensive analysis.

High Level Overview

  • The Moxie indicator has been updated, offering improved trading insights.
  • Market conditions indicate a transition from bearish to bullish sentiment.
  • Small-cap stocks are showing signs of recovery, suggesting potential trading opportunities.
  • Trend lines and breakouts can highlight shifts in market sentiment and identify gains.
  • Analysis of the Volatility Index (VIX) suggests potential for a bullish market shift.
  • Current market breadth improvements show positive market sentiment.
  • Understanding the market’s four phases can guide trading strategies.
  • Monthly chart analysis can uncover overlooked opportunities.
  • Traders should conduct further research and develop strategies based on individual risk tolerance.

The Moxie Indicator Update:

The Moxie indicator, a powerful tool developed by TG Watkins and exclusively taught through his educational platform, has recently undergone significant updates to enhance its functionality and effectiveness. The introduction of the 15-minute power dots and Moxie price triggers for day trading provides traders with valuable insights into potential market moves. These updates not only streamline the trading process but also offer traders the ability to scan for high-impact power dots that indicate significant price movements. The Moxie indicator’s versatility, catering to both long and short positions, enables traders to capitalize on opportunities across different market conditions and timeframes.

Moreover, the improved installation process and compatibility of the Moxie indicator with popular trading platforms such as thinkorswim, TradingView, and stockcharts.com make it accessible to a wider range of traders. With its updated features and broader availability, the Moxie indicator becomes a valuable asset in traders’ toolkits, enabling them to make more informed decisions and potentially increase their trading success.

Overall Market Analysis:

Taking a step back to examine the overall market, it becomes evident that the bearish sentiment that prevailed in the past has significantly subsided. The major indices, including the Spy, NASDAQ, Dow, and semiconductors, have showcased remarkable resilience and strength in recent times. A key indicator of market health is the candle bodies consistently staying above the monthly 10 indicator, indicating a bullish market outlook. This phenomenon highlights the underlying support and positive sentiment that exists in the market.

Additionally, the resurgence of small-cap stocks is a promising sign of broad market participation. Many small-cap names have begun to awaken from their slumber, showing signs of life and recovering from their previous lows. This renewed interest and upward momentum in small-cap stocks provide opportunities for traders to identify potential winners in this segment of the market. It is important to keep a close eye on these developments as they can indicate broader market shifts and new opportunities for profitable trades.

Significance of Trend Lines and Breakouts:

Trend lines and breakout patterns hold significant importance in technical analysis as they provide valuable insights into potential price movements. In the context of the current market environment, these patterns can be crucial in identifying potential opportunities for traders. Examining historical data and real-life examples, we observe instances where stocks have broken out of downward channels and successfully tested support levels.

When a stock breaks out of a downward trendline and tests it as a new support level, it often indicates a shift in market sentiment. It suggests that buyers are stepping in, pushing the price higher and potentially initiating a new uptrend. This provides traders with an excellent opportunity to enter positions with the potential for substantial gains.

By identifying and monitoring these breakout patterns, traders can position themselves ahead of potential price surges and capitalize on the emerging opportunities in the market. The key is to combine technical analysis with other indicators and market factors to increase the probability of success in trading decisions.

Validation of Previous Market Update:

Looking back at TG Watkins’ market update from March, it’s clear that his previous predictions were right on the mark. This shows us that Watkins really understands how markets work. His successful forecasts add more credibility to his current analysis of the market.

The validation of previous predictions strengthens the conviction in the current analysis and market outlook. It indicates that the underlying factors and indicators discussed in the video transcript have a track record of accuracy and can be relied upon as valuable tools for assessing market conditions. Traders can gain confidence in their decision-making by recognizing the successful past predictions and aligning their strategies with the insights provided.

By incorporating the lessons learned from the validation of previous market updates, traders can further refine their approach and enhance their trading performance.

The VIX as a Contrarian Indicator:

The Volatility Index (VIX) serves as a valuable contrarian indicator, providing traders with insights into market sentiment and potential reversals. Drawing parallels between the current market conditions and historical data, particularly the 2003 market, allows us to gauge the potential for a bullish market movement. During the 2003 period, as volatility decreased, the market experienced a significant upward trend.

Analyzing the VIX in the present context, we observe heightened bearishness in the market. This excessive bearish sentiment suggests that the market may be reaching a point of maximum pessimism. According to contrarian theory, when too many market participants hold bearish views, it often indicates an imminent market turnaround. As historical data suggests, market bottoms are often characterized by extreme bearish sentiment.

Considering the VIX as a contrarian indicator, traders can approach the market with caution but also remain alert for potential bullish opportunities. While it is crucial to manage risk and be prepared for possible pullbacks, the prevailing bearish sentiment, coupled with historical patterns, may present a compelling case for an upward market movement.

Market Breadth and Participation:

Monitoring market breadth indicators provides traders with a comprehensive understanding of market participation and sentiment. One key measure is the analysis of new highs and new lows, along with cumulative readings. These indicators shed light on the breadth of stocks experiencing positive or negative price movements, helping traders gauge the overall health of the market.

Recent data shows improvements in market breadth, with a decline in new lows and an increase in new highs. This shift indicates a positive market sentiment and broader participation of stocks in the upward movement. It suggests that market momentum is not limited to a few select stocks but rather is permeating across various sectors and companies.

By keeping a close eye on market breadth indicators, traders can gain insights into the strength of the market and identify potential opportunities. A healthy market breadth, characterized by a broad participation of stocks, increases the likelihood of sustained upward movements and provides a favorable environment for traders seeking profitable trades.

Bullish Sentiment Indicators:

Examining bullish sentiment indicators, such as the put-call ratio and short positions, offers further insights into market sentiment and potential market reversals. The put-call ratio measures the ratio of put options to call options being traded. When the ratio is high, it suggests a higher level of bearish sentiment, indicating a potential oversold condition in the market.

Similarly, analyzing short positions provides valuable information. If large speculators or small traders hold excessively short positions, it often indicates a crowded trade and the potential for short squeezes. A short squeeze occurs when prices start to rise, forcing short sellers to cover their positions, which can lead to a rapid upward price movement.

In the current market scenario, both the put-call ratio and short positions point to significant bearish sentiment. However, as contrarian indicators, they also present opportunities for potential market reversals. When bearish sentiment becomes excessive, it often acts as a precursor to market upswings. Traders should closely monitor these indicators and be prepared to adjust their positions accordingly.

The Four Phases of the Market:

Understanding the four phases of the market—accumulation, advancing, distribution, and declining—provides essential context for comprehensive market analysis. Each phase represents a distinct market condition and can guide traders in making informed decisions based on prevailing trends.

In the accumulation phase, smart money and institutional investors accumulate positions gradually, often at lower prices. This phase is characterized by a sideways or consolidating market, as institutional investors position themselves for an upcoming upward move. Identifying stocks in the accumulation phase can provide traders with potential buying opportunities before a significant price surge.

The advancing phase marks the period of sustained upward movement in the market. It is characterized by strong bullish sentiment, increasing trading volumes, and a broad participation of stocks. During this phase, traders can look for stocks that demonstrate relative strength and the potential for continued upward momentum.

Distribution occurs when institutional investors start selling their positions, leading to increased volatility and potential market tops. It is crucial for traders to monitor distribution patterns and identify potential reversal signals to protect their gains and avoid potential losses.

The declining phase represents a market downturn, with prices falling and bearish sentiment prevailing. Traders need to exercise caution during this phase and focus on risk management strategies to minimize losses and preserve capital.

By understanding the four phases of the market, traders can better navigate the market cycles and align their trading strategies accordingly. This knowledge helps identify the most opportune moments to enter or exit positions and maximize trading success.

Overall, a thorough analysis of the Moxie indicator updates, overall market conditions, trend lines and breakouts, and validation of previous market updates provides traders with valuable insights and opportunities. By combining these factors with the understanding of market breadth, bullish sentiment indicators, and the four phases of the market, traders can make more informed decisions and potentially achieve greater success in their trading endeavors.

Monthly Charts and Promising Ticker Ideas:

Analyzing monthly charts offers a broader perspective on the market and allows traders to identify potential opportunities that may have been overlooked on shorter timeframes. By examining the monthly performance of various stocks and ETFs, we can uncover hidden patterns and trends that can guide our trading decisions.

In the video, several monthly charts were presented, showcasing stocks that have exhibited promising price action and potential for future growth. These charts revealed key insights into the market’s overall direction and the performance of individual stocks.

It is essential to note that these charts represent a sample of the many stocks that are displaying similar patterns. The overarching theme is that many stocks have stopped declining and are now engaging with higher time moving averages. This indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, with stocks finding support and displaying signs of upward momentum.

For traders seeking specific ticker ideas, the video mentioned that there are numerous stocks exhibiting positive monthly chart patterns. While the video didn’t provide an exhaustive list, it suggested that there are plenty of opportunities available for those willing to dig deeper. By conducting further research and analysis, traders can identify stocks that align with their trading strategies and show potential for future growth.


In conclusion, TG has delivered a detailed market analysis covering updates to the Moxie indicator, examination of monthly charts, trend lines and breakouts, market breadth, bullish sentiment indicators, and the four phases of the market. These insights aim to help traders make informed decisions and enhance their success in navigating the current market environment. However, TG emphasizes the importance of individual research and due diligence.

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