The indices had their first “stress test” since Powell announced that taper may need to progress quicker than initially expected. The Non-Farm Payroll headline number was a “miss” and the old “bad news is good news” reaction was nowhere to be found. So does this mean the tantrum is not over?
The Volatility Index (VIX) spiked this week and before I add more exposure in my long positions, I would ideally like to see VIX retreat below the 21 EMA down to a level of safety. In today’s video, we’ll walk through spots I want to get some exposure in with this flush in the market.
In terms of my mindset here, I’m looking for a dip in the S&P 500 (ES) to the 21 exponential moving average (EMA). We’ve seen multiple times this year that the market becomes extended and pulls back to the 21 EMA, even with the daily chart losing structure. In today’s video, we’ll discuss volatility and cover setups I’m looking to add to my long positions.
The market has been bombarded with three separate narratives: Govt shutdown, variant, taper. That is a lot to process and price in, but as we discussed previously, there are trends that are intact and could benefit from any one of those three narratives; that is where we focus.
Window dressing, year-end rallies, and taper. Which will win and where should the focus be as it seems Powell is playing Grinch to the Santa Rally traders and investors are expecting.
In this video, we look at today’s crazy price action and try to make heads or tails out of it. Is this the start of a new downtrend or just another head fake and bounce?
In this video, we look at today’s crazy price action and try to make heads or tails out of it. Is this the start of a new downtrend or just another head fake and bounce? We look at levels to try to figure out where we might go. We also look at a couple of ideas and talk about some strategies.
I am not giving up on December, and this variant news just needs a little more time before its edge is duller. Not all corners of the market are going to be cut equally in this environment of quicker taper and a growing variant concern… one would be tough but both is far trickier. The playbook for this could be as simple as leaning on relative outperforming indices and sectors and that is what we discuss in this update.
OPEC is on the schedule for tomorrow. There will continue to be fallout from the quicker taper “tantrum” but more so the variant narrative that is not quite discounted into the market. I am still optimistic about December, but we will be happy to keep some day-trading on the agenda to stay nimble.