It may not be what you think it is… with natty gas’ seasonal uptrend behind it, with the structure of the former uptrend broken, and with little expectation at the moment for a bullish narrative, the next trade in natty may surprise traders.
A couple short setups, and a couple long setups. The markets took a heck of a sleigh ride as Santa looks to make an appearance at the end of the month. But it is a specific graph that tells the story best, which I explain in this update.
The internals are very weak and many tickers have not found support for a bounce yet.
The small caps broke out from a 9 month flag and then imploded without finding support. This doesn’t bode well for the strength of the market and the internals agree. We could be close to a bounce, but I don’t see it yet. I’ll show you examples of how to make sure you don’t catch a falling knife vs catching a quick pop to the upside from an oversold condition.
Vols are elevated so caution is still warranted. Here is a plan for the Indices, Energies, Metals, Ag’s, Softs, & Treasuries that I am trading.
There are three phases to a potential year end rally, we’ve already seen the first, and the second is still uncertain, Santa shows up last, and here’s how that could look.
News takes down markets across the world, but were the signs already there? Yes, and if so, they aren’t done yet; let’s review.
Let’s do what we do every Friday, and review the core markets and the periphery to see how things are aligned into next week.
It’s important to know and accept that all trends will transition to chop at some point but that all uptrends—when broken—are not immediately downtrends. This is 140 year old Dow Theory wisdom. But how do we measure it? I share how I do it and where you can get my (free) tools to make it as easy as possible.
