Historically this is the worst week of the year, and it delivered. Next week has lots of catalysts, and there is a script I am looking for the market to follow. It’s all probabilities, so let’s review what bulls need to see to make it a good week.
Tech got hit hard today, but SPX is still flat on the month, and I’m cautious, not bearish. I walk through the SPX and QQQ levels I’m watching for a reversal, Apple and Palantir holding up, Tesla and Meta after earnings, and why money is flowing into XLP.
The S&P 500 is choppy, so I’m going where the follow-through is: the weak Russell 2000 and regional banks, plus weak financials in the Dow. I also walk through my relative strength matrix to find the leaders in energy and staples, and why I’m being very careful with semis right now. Index, sector, stock, every time.
The market gapped down today, and we sold put credit spreads and an iron condor in the room. I break down why the dollar is the lever that matters right now and why the Dell and SanDisk pullbacks are just profit-taking. I also explain when I think Tesla and SpaceX merge.
The semis just ended their worst decline since 2008, and I’m watching whether this bounce gets follow through or fades. I walk through the levels on the Nasdaq, SMH, NVDA, TSM, AMD and MRVL, plus why LRCX earnings on Wednesday could decide Thursday’s move.
