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Everything Looks Bad Except One Chart
The whole board is neutral except one thing: my Mag 7 index is reading 99 out of 100 while the S&P 500 sits at dead zero. Next week is Fed plus quarterly OPEX, so I walk through the primary long on MAGS, the escape plan in IWM puts if they hike, and one energy name if the market falls apart.
Nobody Is Panicking Yet, That Can Change Wednesday
This morning’s hot PPI report is putting pressure on the markets while the chance of a rate hike goes higher. With only a few days to go until that rate announcement, I think it’s worth sitting out of any long term trades and sticking to day trades until we have a clear direction on the market.
Is SpaceX Ready To Rip Into Friday?
SpaceX has done the full round trip since the IPO: the run to nearly $230, the drawdown that bled retail out, and now a bottom. SPCX has recovered the 21 EMA and the anchored VWAP off the lifetime high, with a squeeze building underneath. I am looking for a rally into Friday.
This Is Where Stocks Roll Over And Die
We gapped down, chopped and closed near the lows, with the Nasdaq holding up better than the S&P. SanDisk tagged $1,800 and gave most of it back, which is exactly what this stock does, and I see real support around $1,700. If we gap down 40 or 50 points tomorrow I want to be a buyer there.
The Catalyst Comes Soon
The tape leaked conviction all session without breaking anything, so I am setting my plan before next week instead of guessing at it. I walk through the five names on my buy list, DELL, SMCI, NTNX, MU and NVDA, and the one short I would take if the market throws a tantrum. The score list is a wall of gray right now, and that tells you which side of this to lean on.
September Starts Strong. That’s The Trap.
We finally got a trending day. The S&P ran straight through the H1 quant pivot and closed a hair under the H2, which puts us about 20 points below the voodoo Treeline at $7,768. That level has rejected price every time it has been tested.
A Few Squeezes Setting Up For The Month Ahead
I walk through my DELL targets, NVDA back on the 21 EMA with the squeeze trying to fire, and a third name pinned at a big psychological level. These are bigger picture ideas, so keep them on your watch list.
200 Years Of Interest Rates
DELL was heavy all day and closed down 31 points ahead of earnings, then reported a beat with guidance up. I break down why $480 is the only level that matters from here. I also pull up the 10-year and 200 years of rate history to show why 4.8% is not the emergency everybody thinks it is.
QQQ, SMH And NVDA Are All Loading The Same Weekly Squeeze
While I’m focused on short-term trades while the action is mixed, a handful of the most important tickers in the market are forming squeezes on large timeframes. These can eventually make for some great moves, so let’s dive in and take a look.
Is September About to Break This Market?
Inverse trampoline signals are showing up across the indices just as we head into September, seasonally the weakest month of the year. In tonight’s video I break down Warsh’s hawkish comments, the QE push-pull holding this market up, and why I am taking profits on crypto instead of chasing.
