Bank Takeover Talk Helps Market Soar


Simpler Trading Team

Mar 16th 2023  .  3 min read

Bank Takeover Talk Helps Market Soar

Overnight, a modest upward movement in the indices allowed the S&P 500 futures to touch their 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Consistent with recent trading sessions, the 200-day SMA once again served as a resistance point, prompting a 50-point decline in the S&P 500 futures and bringing the index to the key 3,900 level.

As the market opened, rumors began to circulate that First Republic Bank was in discussions regarding a potential takeover to avert the collapse of a fourth U.S. bank. Major financial institutions such as JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) demonstrated their willingness to provide liquidity support. It is estimated that First Republic Bank may receive $30 billion from these larger banks to complete the rescue operation.

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Market Holds Key Level and Launches Higher

As the market found stability above the 3,900 mark, investors continued to accumulate positions, ultimately propelling the market upward. Once it began to climb from this support zone, the market’s ascent was unrelenting. The momentum was strong enough to push the index past the 200-day SMA and beyond. Upon surpassing the 3,950 level, additional targets above became feasible.

In contrast to its performance a couple of weeks ago, when the S&P 500 futures consistently failed to break above key moving averages, the market overcame these barriers today. During the surge, the index surpassed both the 15-day SMA and the 21-day Exponential Moving Average. This upward trajectory led the index to the significant 4,000 level, completing a 100-point move within the cash session.

As the session drew to a close, the market encountered resistance at the 4,000 mark but managed to maintain its position above the 21-day EMA. This closing performance is noteworthy when compared to recent market behavior. Typically, when the S&P 500 futures remain above the 21-day EMA, a bullish trend is forming, and today’s close above that level reinforces this notion.

Bull and Bear Cases From Here

What does this mean for the market’s future trajectory? At first glance, it appears to be at a critical juncture for short positions. However, a more in-depth analysis suggests that the market is situated at a chart point with the potential for significant movement. Closing just 6 points above the 21-day EMA does not guarantee a definitive new uptrend. In fact, a robust bearish trend often resets at this level before initiating another substantial downward leg. The bearish scenario involves the market falling below the 21-day EMA and remaining below the 4,000 level, thereby creating ample room for further decline.

Market Indices Approach Indecision Zone

Conversely, the bullish case envisions the S&P 500 futures maintaining their position above the 21-day EMA at 3,987. For a long bias to be supported, the market would need to break and sustain itself above the 4,000 level. If the index can consistently hold above these thresholds, it may establish a solid foundation for further upward movement. Additionally, it is essential to monitor the 50-day SMA situated at 4,020.

Market Moves Higher Effortlessly 

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were positive to close the session. The S&P 500 futures closed up 1.74%, adding 68 points, while the Nasdaq futures closed up 2.61%, gaining 323 points. The Dow Jones futures followed, closing up 1.20%, an additional 383 points.

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