Hey Market Pilots, The indexes have been a little difficult to read and interpret over the last few weeks. I chalk this up to back-to-back four day holiday weeks where traders are on vacation and volume is reduced, plus end of year shenanigans due to tax concerns. I wrote a newsletter the other week describing … Read more
Let me just start out by saying, do not count out an extended rally into the new year. Bold statement? Honestly? Yes. But this is a bold-ass market with record call buying. You might say, “the Nasdaq chart has less or no structure! It’s unsupported. The PCALL and SKEW indicate I should have hedges on!” … Read more
As we go into the close of 2020 and come into the holidays, the market historically looks to the sky for the Santa Rally. What is the Santa Rally? The Santa Rally is when the market typically trades higher going into the final few weeks of the year. What’s the reason for the Santa Rally? … Read more
2020 has certainly been a year for the history books in many aspects. We have had a worldwide pandemic that sent certain industries to a screeching halt and other sectors skyrocketing. The overall market has also had a rollercoaster of a year with a strong move down to long term support levels and then an … Read more
Hey Market Pilots, So we finally had the 2020 election on Tuesday, but now it’s Wednesday and we don’t have an answer. I believe this was of no surprise to the vast majority of us, as we knew this year’s election was going to be just another crazy thing to add to the list of … Read more
There is a setup in the markets currently that mirrors the setup just before Black Monday in 1987 that you should be aware of. This does not mean that history repeats; as traders we look at probabilities first. Let me make the case: In 1987, from June to October, the market was seeing a winning … Read more
The last few days have shown that we have to be prepared for anything to happen in 2020. Yes, there are only about 80 more days but with the rollercoaster of the COVID pandemic now reaching President Trump himself, why shouldn’t we expect aliens to visit too? Oh wait, they apparently did. Watching the various … Read more
The trading days surrounding the Labor Day weekend saw the market sell off hard. This was not a surprise as we had been seeing indications that the market was getting very extended. One way that I can detect when the market is ripe for a turn is by watching the UVXY. This is a leveraged ETF of volatility and can be a tool for hedging.
Since the March lows, we have seen the Fed do incredible things never seen before. It started with conventional things (like slashing rates and providing liquidity to markets) and quickly spiraled into modern day money printing via debt monetization and, even more drastically, buying corporate junk bonds.