It may not be what you think it is… with natty gas’ seasonal uptrend behind it, with the structure of the former uptrend broken, and with little expectation at the moment for a bullish narrative, the next trade in natty may surprise traders.

There are three phases to a potential year end rally, we’ve already seen the first, and the second is still uncertain, Santa shows up last, and here’s how that could look.

It’s important to know and accept that all trends will transition to chop at some point but that all uptrends—when broken—are not immediately downtrends. This is 140 year old Dow Theory wisdom. But how do we measure it? I share how I do it and where you can get my (free) tools to make it as easy as possible.

The market has been bombarded with three separate narratives: Govt shutdown, variant, taper. That is a lot to process and price in, but as we discussed previously, there are trends that are intact and could benefit from any one of those three narratives; that is where we focus.

I am not giving up on December, and this variant news just needs a little more time before its edge is duller. Not all corners of the market are going to be cut equally in this environment of quicker taper and a growing variant concern… one would be tough but both is far trickier. The playbook for this could be as simple as leaning on relative outperforming indices and sectors and that is what we discuss in this update.