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The Point of No Return? The Path to the June Lows
The bulls made some notable progress last week, but that progress quickly lost with today’s gap taking the market under key levels of support. What will it take from the bulls for the market to avoid slipping much lower? Let’s take a look.
Bucking a trend?
The market has been trading under stacked moving averages, and I think it might be time to play a rebound, which ultimately could mean a short-squeeze rally into the first week or two into October. I also have reason to believe we are oversold and that a positive reaction to FOMC may be our catalyst to active the upside pressure next week.
Taking All Offers
Friday brought sellers out in droves, and while there are plenty of ways for this market to break-down, I believe we’re short term oversold and will be looking for a bounce into next week.
The Long and Short of It
Timing is everything, and in a two-sided market they’ll try to keep SPY above 390 tomorrow. While we could correct further the better short is back at the mean. If strength does end up being more the order of the day there’s one name to look to, and these are the levels for it.
How to dominate daytrading for an hour.
That’s been the approach since mid-June: Focusing on the first hour after the bell. Why? Because it’s been the cleanest and keeps us out of the fray. Here’s how the setups worked this morning during the “magic hour”.
Proceed With Caution
In this video, we discuss the huge sell-off we had yesterday after the “hot” CPI numbers. The market did not like this at all and we are now in a holding pattern until we hear from the FED next week. Will they raise rates .50 or .75 or more, and how would this affect the market?
Roll Complete. Next OPEX
Today the roll shows complete for that which will roll. The rest is left to cash settle. We still have two more reports and OPEX ahead to wrap up the week. Additionally, I’d like to update the line in the sand, and should it hold, the next bearish target as I see it.
What did the CPI really do?
In this update, I explain how the hot zone of the CPI moved expectations for Fed Fund Target Rate Probability and what they really mean. As well as why the media and analysts want to scare you into thinking all this is far, far worse.
Attention, No time for a nap.
All hands on deck this week. Between the pace of the roll, the width of the gap, the constant news cycle, and the OPEX at the end of the week, there is more than enough on deck to make a difference. Stay alert.
