Stock Market Technical Analysis Silences Fear
Current stock market conditions have been a roller coaster ride for retail traders often bombarded with media analysis.
From one day to the next – even from morning to afternoon – the market is not delivering directional momentum for traders to pattern.
Simpler’s traders daily work on finding balance that offsets media fear mongering while navigating twists and turns with stock market technical analysis.
Stock market analysis thwarts fear mongering
Raghee Horner, Managing Director of Futures Trading at Simpler Trading, pointed to the need for retail traders to follow stock market technical analysis of price movement versus media headlines.
Raghee highlighted the large sell-off on Tuesday following U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) economic numbers. She doesn’t credit the data – or recent hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments – as the cause of the market gap down.
Instead, she highlighted how the CPI results dropped very little compared to the previous report and how the Fed comments stayed on course.
Hidden in the quirky mix of headlines is how inflation data may influence the Fed to raise benchmark interest rates higher than expected. That combination – fueled by the possibility of an unexpected Fed change – caused real concern among market participants which sparked the sell-off.
“This is why stocks sold off,” Raghee said.
Market not below previous low levels
But how bad is the market right now?
Raghee remains leaning bullish because the Fed stance is still within target probabilities of raising interest rates. (Watch the video here.)
And, she pointed out, stock market technical analysis shows price levels have not fallen below the market collapse levels in March, 2020 due to the pandemic despite multiple, negative Fed and economic data influences since then.
She follows a map based on stock market technical analysis (focused on data and price), and points to levels over the past two years in the S&P 500 (/ES). Looking at the weekly /ES chart, since the Covid drop the market has not moved below mean price on the volume weighted average price (VWAP) indicator.
The /ES appeared to test the low in June of this year, but did not break below this level. And, she said, the /ES has not broken below the 200-day exponential moving average.
Based on these signals, Raghee questions any hype of radical losses ahead for the market. Outside of an unexpected, market crashing event, her expectation is for the market to lean higher through next year based on these technical signals.
This doesn’t discount market twists like the sell-off this week, but affords a more measured assessment of market conditions.
“I hope this gives you another perspective,” Raghee said. “There’s no reason to be that pessimistic. This isn’t about today, it’s about the ebb and flow in six months to a year.”
Veteran trader’s ‘mastery’ keeps winning
Raghee is a 30-year veteran trader who has never had a losing year trading the markets.
Traders have an opportunity to look over her shoulder as she reveals her detailed plans to find, enter, manage, and exit trades focused on profitability. As a trader who risks her own capital, Raghee shares her personal step-by-step trading plan in a specialized online trading room at Simpler Trading.
You can learn more about Raghee’s trading insight and her mastery program HERE.