The Tug of War: Tech Struggles and Bond Yields Surge


Simpler Trading Team

Jul 06th 2023  .  6 min read

The Morning Bell

Thursday’s market opening kicked off on a shaky note as investors grappled with a robust U.S. ADP private-payrolls report. With a notably stronger-than-anticipated report in play, bonds yields ascended, which set the expectation for an extended period of high fed funds rate. The technology-heavy Nasdaq underperformed against both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones indexes. Overnight, the 2-year Treasury yield climbed past the 5.0% mark, inching towards its highest levels since 2007. The VIX volatility index, Wall Street’s fear barometer, also swelled by about 9.5% in the morning.

Market Performance – Day of Divergence

Today’s market landscape was a checkerboard of ascents and descents, clearly delineating winners from losers. High-valuation sectors, particularly in the technology realm, fell victim to heightened rates, experiencing significant downward pressure. With the escalating tension in the market, companies within these sectors struggled to maintain their balance, causing the Nasdaq to trail both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones indexes.

On the other side of the coin, the leisure and hospitality sectors flourished amidst the economic turbulence. These sectors acted as the principal driving force behind the staggering addition of 497,000 jobs in June, significantly surpassing the anticipated forecast of 225,000. While a portion of these employment gains can be attributed to the ongoing post-pandemic recovery, they also underscore the economic potential of these sectors, particularly as we move deeper into the summer travel season.

The Equity Labyrinth

In the intricate maze of today’s market, individual stocks like tech giants Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) navigated the turbulence, etching out paths of progress. Particularly, Microsoft emerged as a beacon of optimism amidst the volatility with a 1.2% rise at day’s close. With this chaotic market in view, now is the ideal time to tap into the “Quick Hits” strategy offered by John Carter, Founder of Simpler Trading. Carter, a master of the trading arena for decades, has honed a unique approach targeting swift setups and aiming for 1%+ daily gains, all without overnight risk. Amidst market uncertainty, Carter’s strategy enables a focus on quick profits rather than market direction, creating a trading lifestyle where the odds favor your success. Don’t miss this chance to get “back to basics” and bolster your 2023 trading game – Access Today.

Economic Reporting – Labour Leaps

Today’s economic reports painted a picture of a labor market standing tall amidst the storm. June’s private payrolls were the showstopper, adding an impressive 497,000 jobs and comfortably outpacing the forecasted 225,000. This robust figure, the highest in over a year, indicates that the labor market is flexing its muscles, signaling positive momentum for the U.S. economy.

The star performers of this employment upsurge were undeniably the services sectors, which accounted for the lion’s share of the job additions. The services sectors padded their payrolls with 373,000 jobs, demonstrating the resilience and importance of these sectors in the current economic landscape. Goods-producing sectors also pulled their weight by contributing an additional 124,000 jobs, underscoring the balanced nature of this labor market growth.

Rising Yields Cast Long Echoes Across the Market

The strength of the labor market and expectations for an additional Fed rate hike this month have catalyzed a significant climb in government bond yields. As it stands, the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields are teetering on the brink of reaching their year-highs, standing at around 5.07% and 4.04% respectively. The upward shift in yields could, however, stir the waters for equity markets, particularly for high-valuation sectors. The historical trends indicate that Treasury yields tend to peak ahead of the fed fundsrate, and today’s surge implies we may be nearing that peak.

The bond market’s reaction to the economic data is a crucial part of the broader financial narrative. The surge in yields represents an expectation of higher short-term interest rates in the future. Essentially, investors are demanding a higher return for lending money to the government, reflecting their belief that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than previously thought to curb inflation.

Although the yield surge can put pressure on sectors with high valuation multiples, it also has a silver lining. The rise in the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to changes in the federal funds rate, indicates growing confidence in the economic recovery. At the same time, the strong labor market data suggests that businesses are confident about the future, which could help sustain economic momentum in the coming months.

The Global Picture – Implications Beyond Borders

It’s important to note that the effects of the tumultuous U.S. market don’t stop at the country’s borders. Other major global markets also feel the tremors. The labor market strength and climbing bond yields in the U.S. have far-reaching implications on global stock markets, foreign exchange rates, and commodity prices.

Stronger than expected U.S. economic data often boosts the dollar, which can impact commodity prices and emerging market assets. This may create a ripple effect, impacting global trade, monetary policies, and investor sentiment worldwide. Understanding this interconnection can provide valuable context and nuance to today’s U.S. market story. It reminds us that we’re part of a deeply interconnected global financial ecosystem, where news in one part of the world can have profound implications elsewhere.

Market Close – Market Closes Amid Yield Drama

The day drew to a close on Wall Street with a slightly bitter taste in the mouths of market participants. Yield tremors had shaken the floors, causing a modest retreat across the board.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 352.94 points, representing a 1.03% decline, to settle at 33,935.70. The dip followed an intraday high of 34,171.39 and a low of 33,771.47.

As for the S&P 500 index, it also registered a decrement of 0.73%, which translates to a loss of 32.61 points. The index wrapped up the day at 4,414.21 after fluttering between an intraday high of 4,415.63 and a low of 4,385.18.

The tech-savvy Nasdaq wasn’t spared either. It ended the trading session down by 0.77% or 105.94 points at 13,685.71. Its intraday journey traced a high of 13,689.52 and a dip to 13,567.25.

Smaller market players, represented by the Small Cap 2000, took a bit more of a hit. The index was down 33.71 points or 1.80%, concluding the session at 1,840.45 after oscillating between a high of 1,850.10 and a low of 1,819.35.

Finally, the S&P 500 VIX, often used as a barometer of market fear, saw a leap of 1.14 points, up by 8.04%, marking an uneasy day for the markets.