50 Shades of Beige: The Uninspiring Tale of the Fed’s Book


Simpler Trading Team

May 31st 2023  .  5 min read

Opening Bell Rings in a Day of Surprises

The market opened with subtle hints of the fluctuation that lay ahead. The initial price action revealed a mixed market breadth that leaned slightly towards the negative. With decliners leading advancers by a 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 5-to-3 margin at the Nasdaq, the day commenced with a hushed sense of anticipation. Meanwhile, the overnight futures market held the promise of intriguing developments.

Unfolding Market Dynamics

Despite a somewhat cloudy market atmosphere, the day wasn’t devoid of flickers of brightness. As the dust of opening bell settled, clear sectoral trends began to emerge, painting a diverse landscape of performance.

Leading the pack were technology stocks, bracing against the overall downward pull. Notably, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, although down, put on the brave face as the “best” performing major average, bolstered by the resilient artificial intelligence sector. With the continued outperformance of key players like Nvidia (NVDA), whose upbeat earnings and subsequent surge in stock price have helped it break the $1-trillion market cap ceiling, tech was undoubtedly the day’s dark horse.

However, the day was less forgiving for energy stocks. Energy complex futures slipped further into the red, building on previous losses. WTI crude oil futures experienced a 2.3% slip to settle at $68.13/bbl, while natural gas futures dipped by 2.5% to land at $2.25/mmbtu. This tumble in energy sector performance was partly linked to China’s subdued manufacturing activity and lower-than-expected energy demand.

Individual Stock Performers Sing Different Tunes

In the realm of individual stocks, there were a few noteworthy narratives. Among Dow Jones constituents, 3M (MMM) emerged as an underperformer, with its share price slipping by 2.86%. Joining it in the drop were Home Depot (HD) and Travelers (TRV), down by 2.15% and 1.79% respectively.

However, in an almost contrasting symphony, Intel (INTC) managed to hit a high note, surging by 6.27%, making it the day’s standout performer among the DJIA stocks. These polarities in stock performances further highlighted the intricacy of the day’s market tapestry.

Corporate Performance Check-up

On the earnings front, the day had its fair share of sparks. The recent standout has been Nvidia (NVDA). The tech titan had investors and market spectators talking with its stellar earnings report that significantly outpaced expectations. The robust earnings release was a shot in the arm for Nvidia’s stock, which saw an impressive climb, cementing the company’s position in the $1-trillion market cap club.

It wasn’t just the robust earnings that got tongues wagging but also the promising outlook driven by the growing demand for Nvidia’s chips. These chips, integral to building and deploying artificial intelligence algorithms, have cemented Nvidia’s foothold in the AI sector and have contributed to the ongoing ‘A.I.’ rally.

Tracking the Economic Pulse

Beyond the confines of the stock market, the day bore witness to several noteworthy economic updates. The Fed’s latest Beige Book took center stage, revealing a generally steady overall economic activity in April and early May. Notably, employment saw an uptick across most Districts, albeit at a slightly more relaxed pace than previously reported.

Signs of a robust labor market were still evident, with recruiters highlighting the challenge of finding workers across diverse skill levels and industries. Wage growth, albeit modest, continued to underscore the labor market strength. However, staffing firms reported a slowdown in demand growth, providing a counterpoint to the otherwise strong labor market dynamics.

Inflation dynamics also caught attention. The Beige Book indicated moderate price hikes over the reporting period, with the pace of increase slowing down in many Districts. While nonlabor input costs rose, many contacts reported eased cost pressures and falling prices for certain inputs, such as lumber. The report did raise a few eyebrows with its projection of future economic growth. It mentioned a slight moderation in the growth outlook, with most businesses pointing to uncertainty about inflation, labor markets, and supply chain disruptions as main drivers of this softened optimism. Consumer loan delinquencies witnessed a mild uptick, signaling a potential crack in the consumer financial health. However, the overall lending volumes were largely flat, and commercial loan demand stayed robust.

With these insights, the Beige Book provides a nuanced view of the economy, underlining supply and demand as major driving forces shaping the economy. Traders who understand the dynamics of supply and demand often have an unfair advantage over other market participants. Jonathan McKeever, the Director of Supply & Demand Trading at Simpler Trading, uses this knowledge to consistently outsmart big institutions, securing victories in 80% of his trades. The secret to his success? Understanding supply and demand.

Tonight, in an eagerly awaited webinar scheduled for 7PM, McKeever plans to reveal the secret sauce behind his consistent success. Sign up HERE

Section 5: Closing Bell: A Day of Dramatic Turns

The market came to a close, characterized by a recalibration of expectations regarding a June rate hike. The Dow slipped -113.96 to 32928.73, Nasdaq dropped -56.70 to 12960.90, and S&P fell -17.57 to 4189.22. Treasuries saw gains across the curve, with the 2-yr note yield falling 10 basis points to 4.39% and the 10-yr note yield dropping six basis points to 3.64%.

Supply and demand