Hawkish VS Dovish: What It Means For Traders
Hawkish VS Dovish? This topic has been highly discussed as Jerome Powell’s remarks at the 2022 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium has seen over 78-Billion dollars to evaporate from the equities market overnight.
So what does it mean when we talk about dovish and hawkish monetary policy? And why is it important? In this blog post, we’re going to take a closer look at these terms and explain why they are so important for traders. Stay tuned!
- What do hawkish and dovish mean
- Hawkish Monetary Policy
- Dovish Monetary Policy
- Jerome Powell’s 2022 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Speech – Hawkish
Hawkish Vs Dovish
Hawkish Vs Dovish are two words you hear a lot in the world of finance, but what do they mean? A dovish central banker is one who is willing to keep interest rates low in order to stimulate the economy. A hawkish central banker, on the other hand, is more likely to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation. When it comes to monetary policy, hawks and doves often find themselves at odds.
Hawkish Monetary Policy
Historically, the hawk is revered as a predatory bird known for it’s power and agility. When we look at hawkish monetary policy, we associate this with aggressive changes to the interest rates, deflationary monetary policy, and limiting the economy’s expansion.
When it comes to monetary policy, “hawks” are those who believe in tighter money supply and higher interest rates. That’s because inflationary pressures are kept in check when the money supply is tight and businesses have less money to borrow for expansion. As a result, hawks tend to closely monitor inflationary indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Hawks are typically associated with low inflation and low unemployment.
Dovish Monetary Policy
Doves are typically associated with times of peace and prosperity. A dovish monetary policy is one in which the central bank seeks to promote economic growth by keeping interest rates low and making credit readily available. This approach is typically used during periods of high unemployment or slow economic growth.
By making borrowing cheaper and more accessible, dovish monetary policy encourages businesses to expand and invest, leading to job creation and increased consumer spending. Additionally, low-interest rates can help to reduce the overall cost of living, giving households more disposable income.
While dovish monetary policy can be effective in stimulating economic activity, it can also lead to inflationary pressures if left unchecked. As a result, central banks must carefully balance the need for stimulus with the risk of inflation when setting monetary policy. As a result, doves tend to keep a close eye on economic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP).
Examples of hawkish behavior by Central Bankers
In Jerome Powell’s 2022 Jackson Hole address, he eluded that the Fed may leave the door open to another 75- basis point rate hike, due September 21st.
If a trader was tasked with summarizing Powell’s 1300-word speech, the word hawkish would definitely be appropriate. In the span of 8 minutes, Powell used the word inflation 44 times, indicating that stabilizing the CPI would be the top priority in the short term.
“While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses” – Jerome Powell
This is the very definition of a hawkish monetary policy. Powell later went on to say “These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”
The July CPI is down to 8.5% from 9.1% in June. There is little doubt, the mechanism the Federal Reserve will use to rein in inflation will be a 3rd consecutive rate hike. This may have negative negative effects on the job market.
Unlike hawks, a dovish monetary policy is typically focused on stimulating growth of the economy by making money more available. This is done by reducing the interest rate, and increasing the monetary supply.
Inflation And Monetary Policy
The inflation rate (CPI) is a measure of how much money people are spending every year on things like food and clothes. The hawkish versus dovish policy views in economics result from the difference between controlling inflation and promoting economic growth. Hawks want higher interest rates to curb inflation, while dove’s goal is lower borrowing costs so consumers can spend more money on goods.
Hawks and Doves both use the interest rates to achieve their monetary goals. Both types of monetary policy can greatly effect how a trader should approach the market. In a hawkish environment, traders should be cautious regarding volatility and a potential contraction of the equities market. In a dovish environment, traders may see an expansion of the economic cycle, leading to a bull-market.
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