The Big Picture

2018-06-29 | Allison Ostrander

Simpler Summary

This week has certainly been an interesting one in the markets. We’ve seen a pick up in the daily ranges each day this week, but overall the market has been rather flat and consolidating. This could be due to the market holiday next week, or it could be just a normal pull back given the recent move to the upside. Whenever I’m faced with uncertainty or confusion on a daily chart, I like to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

It’s easy to be influenced by dramatic news headlines whenever the market might see a down day, but this doesn’t mean you should jump ship on your trades. Instead take a step back and pull up your weekly and monthly charts. I’ve found that whenever I’m confused by what I’m seeing on a daily chart, the weekly and monthly charts can provide clarity not only in overall trend direction, but also in identifying longer support and resistance levels the price might be headed to. As the old English saying goes:


“Don’t lose sight of the forest for the trees.”


So remember, don’t lose sight of the bigger picture if you’re solely focused on just one chart and one time frame. Instead, take a step back to really get a good view of the entire trend and stock before taking action in your account.

Simpler Sentiment

John — The markets kicked off the week with “ugly Monday” and really never recovered from an index perspective, even though we found some great long trades in stocks like AMZN.  Today is end of month (eom) and end of quarter (eoq). Stocks “usually” sell off on these types of afternoons, and I’ll be establishing short index positions around lunch, just before heading to the gym.  What about next week? Keep in mind that next week is a light week, with July 4th (and a market close) popping up on a Wednesday. Looking at the daily NQ chart, we have been grinding back up towards the 8/21 EMA that broke down after Monday’s puking.  This type of setup is usually a “kiss the moving average goodbye” before doing a short term rollover. I continue to like the idea of being 80% cash, with a 20% mix of long and short setups, and the occasional “big day trade” or “big overnight trade” on setups like AMZN when they setup.  With cash comes flexibility.

Carolyn — I’m considering the 6/28 low key and pivotal as it was made at time/price support.  If we can continue to hold above here I have higher targets I’m watching for. I’m wrong if we break that same low.

Here is how it looks on the September S&P daily futures contract.

Danielle — The markets took a hit this week after tariff news, but to me that was just a sale. I am looking forward to the run into earnings in July. I will be buying up tech stocks – but not until after 4th of July! Have an awesome holiday week. I’ll be light and after that, ready to go into the next earnings season

Henry —  One of the best things I have to note about this week’s trade is the extreme put call reading we saw on Thursday ($PCVA). This was the first extreme sentiment reading we had all week, and it did a great job of calling the lows in the indexes. Still sticking with WING – energy acts great. Taking a few things into cash and looking for chop during the short week starting Monday.

Raghee Horner says:

See the original setup HERE

Expert: Raghee Horner

Setup: Setup on QQQ

Update from Allison: Much like the rest of the market, we have seen consolidation overall in the QQQ this week. If QQQ can continue to hold support through the market holiday mid next week, then I think we could continue to see a move higher. The longer term weekly trend is still pointed to the upside overall, and unless we break support, we could see the price move back up and test recent highs.