Simpler Sentiment – Weekly Wrap Up 3/31/17

As we close out the quarter, the Indexes have regained most or all of the ground lost last week. The S&P 500 gapped lower on Monday morning, but has climbed all week, getting back to 2367. The Nasdaq 100 is actually at a new all-time high, of 5449. The Russell 2000 has gained each day this week to climb back up to 1388.

The VIX is surprisingly on the rise today, up almost 6 percent to 12.20. That comes even with the VXST down at 9.76. The VIX futures remain in their normal Contango and the 20-day historical volatility for the SPX is back down below 7 percent.

Most of our traders were bearish at the start of the week. This is their current outlook.

Henry: I too am a fan of the bullish scenario. If forced to play it in the Indexes I’d look to the QQQ’s. If looking for individual names, I think $CMCSA (Comcast) and $HD (Home Depot) are going to follow in the path of $AMZN (Amazon).

Chris: I am looking for a test of the 2325 level.

Tony: The Russell 2000 has lagged well behind the other Indexes this year, but has led the Indexes higher this week. As of 10 am Central Time, the Russell 2000 is ahead 2.2% this week. I am looking for the Russell 2000 to outperform in April leading the other indexes higher. The Russell 2000 has some major catching up to do to the upside.

Carolyn: Let’s say I’m only bullish SPX if we can clear the big daily hurdle at the 2366.50-2369.75 area via S&P futures. This is the last place I’m watching for a possible failure under the recent highs. The odds INCREASE for a continued rally if we clear the “bearish symmetry” from the last couple of swings up.

David: The decline from March 1st has all the hallmarks of a corrective pullback so we continue to look higher in the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. With that said, we could see some early weakness to start next week. If we do, we are expecting to see it hold above the March 27th low. However, even breaking that level wouldn’t change the corrective appearance of the current decline and we would still look upward after the Index feels lower for support.

Neil: I am looking for the S&P 500 futures to go to 2387, stall, then up to 2440 for the rule of 10 objective.

Tucker: The S&P 500 continues to hover around the 2361 Voodoo Tree line. The momentum on the squeeze is around zero. So, I am expecting price to bounce around the Voodoo line for the next few days. The Semiconductor Index continues to be one of the strongest sectors.

Doc: Ok – the bull tripped on another rock this week but the toe on his other foot is healing – he’s still doing well and has yet to begin looking for any bears in the woods. Still good opportunities to get on the long train this week.

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann has been involved professionally with the stock market for more than 15 years and specifically with derivatives for 12 of those. He started as a stock broker, but quickly moved on to options and futures trading. He spent some time as the Derivatives Product Manager for TD Ameritrade. He was the chief analyst and hedging strategist for OptionMonster. He has been an options trading educator and content provider for many years. His writing and analysis has been featured on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, TheStreet, CNBC and internationally. He has also designed and traded option and futures strategies for prop trading firms and hedge funds as well as managed accounts.

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