Simpler Sentiment – Weekly Wrap-Up 11/25/16

The S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 (RUT) are all closing out this shortened week and day at new record highs.

The RUT has had an amazing 15 straight days of gains. The VIX has settled back in below 13, closing out at 12.58. The VXST, the 9 day Volatility Index, finished up at 10.72, surprisingly gaining more than 6 percent on Friday. Historical volatility for the SPX has fallen back down to the 5 percent range.

Our traders were all bullish this week though some concern is creeping back in.

John is still bullish as “the markets will continue to adjust to the new world paradigm now that the elections are over.”

Henry is feeling a bit more cautious, “The bullish outlook for this week has played out well. I don’t see any reason to start getting short, but we’ve met secondary extensions in the indices and it would make sense to take a breather here. “

Chris thinks the market might continue higher up until December 1st, “then have a sharp downtrend”.

Tony reiterates that “The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) cannot trader 25,000 until it trades 20,000 first.”

David points out that “we are now at a very tricky spot as it is possible to imagine a pullback from near current levels, but it isn’t required. That makes it a really tough spot to get in. Now isn’t the time to be establishing new opinions, but to be managing the outcome of established ones.”

Links from the week:

Take a break from the computer to get out in nature. https://medium.com/personal-growth/feeling-down-stuck-or-in-a-rut-get-out-in-nature-says-science-2df41aacdb46#.1g8zsckqw

An interesting look at how what is arguably the best fund ever – Renaissance Technologies – makes their magic. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/how-renaissance-s-medallion-fund-became-finance-s-blackest-box

A great read into why “lucky streaks” are real. http://www.popsci.com/article/science/are-lucky-streaks-real-science-says-yes?con=TrueAnthem&dom=tw&src=SOC&utm_campaign=&utm_content=5834c6ef19d6ba000720dc13&utm_medium=&utm_source=

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann has been involved professionally with the stock market for more than 15 years and specifically with derivatives for 12 of those. He started as a stock broker, but quickly moved on to options and futures trading. He spent some time as the Derivatives Product Manager for TD Ameritrade. He was the chief analyst and hedging strategist for OptionMonster. He has been an options trading educator and content provider for many years. His writing and analysis has been featured on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, TheStreet, CNBC and internationally. He has also designed and traded option and futures strategies for prop trading firms and hedge funds as well as managed accounts.

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