One of the things I try to teach every day on Simpler Stocks and Simpler Options is the need for 3 reasons to initiate a trade. Most of these are chart based, like using the ATR trailing stop, the MACD, etc. One of the most maddening things I see is when traders ONLY want to use criteria that is dubious in the first place, like the “Pitbull Low”.
The “PitBull Low” was popularized many years ago by a trader named Marty Schwartz. The theory is that the Thursday 8 days before a normal Friday expiration (the third Friday of the month), the market makes a low. So traders are supposed to buy either Thursday at the close, or sometime on Friday.
The problem is that just blindly buying without other criteria has proved to be a low probability trade. Here is a chart of the SPX, with vertical lines denoting normal Friday expirations. The red arrows are for instances when the pit bull low has failed. The green is where it has worked.
As seen, the “PitBull Low” strategy has only worked 7 out of the last 19 expirations, or 36 percent.
Here is a close-up of the last three expirations. The “PitBull Low” seems to work in straight up markets. When Schwartz used this the most, the market was in a big bull market in the 90’s. By nature, in a bull market, most weeks are higher than the previous week.
Like I have mentioned, there is no shortcut for putting in the time and effort to find at least 3 reasons to initiate a trade. Just taking shots is not a path to consistent success. If you love trading, like I do, the effort of finding the trades is not only rewarding, but a heck of a lot of fun!
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