Since the March lows, we have seen the Fed do incredible things never seen before. It started with conventional things (like slashing rates and providing liquidity to markets) and quickly spiraled into modern day money printing via debt monetization and, even more drastically, buying corporate junk bonds.
Normally it would be redundant to say to technically minded traders that “news is noise” … but these are not normal times. Let’s talk about what a chart represents. A chart is a visual representation of the collective decisions and subsequent psychology of millions of market participants.
The real cause of the market volatility is the firing of the bond market signal we noticed in October.
We are now on the other side of the signal – the Rubicon has been crossed.
When folks talk about trading they may think of a couple of things – charts, company earnings, fundamentals and research, technical indicators, etc.… however, one aspect of trading that is chronically under-appreciated is the psychology of trading.
In our previous blog we looked at some of the inflationary forces beginning to show up in the market, however, inflation is a lot like the slow erosion of wind, the results are drastic given a long enough timeline.
Stocks are at an all-time high fueled by an accommodative Fed, improving trade war sentiment, and a steepening yield curve. What do all three of these things have in common? They are all major contributors to the resurgence of the “Reflation Trade.” The Reflation Trade refers to the idea that all the easy money from … Read more
Let’s talk about the yield curve. What is it? Yield curve is a visual representation of the “spread” or difference between government bonds of different maturities. For example, if the 10yr bond has a rate of 2% and the 2yr bond has a rate of 1% that would mean the 10y/2y spread is 1%, or … Read more
The U.S. Dollar has been very much in focus over the past couple of months. Traders believe that the Fed’s easing policies may have a negative effect on the Dollar moving forward. It won’t, and here is why. All currencies are traded as relative value, meaning that in order for the Dollar to fall another … Read more
Let’s review the big news of the week, specifically, the Fed and the ECB both trying to out-dive the other. On Tuesday, we had Mario Draghi essentially front-run the Fed on Wednesday by stating that the ECB was very open to lowering rates and additional asset purchases. What does this mean? Well, it means that … Read more
Let’s go back to December 2018. The market was rapidly falling, the fear was palpable, there was blood in the streets … and then what happened? The Fed capitulated on their rate hike schedule. The market cheered and rallied from a V-shaped bottom back to the previous all-time high. Everyone likes a rally, but let’s … Read more