Simpler Sentiment – Weekly Wrap-Up 3/3/17

The broad indexes including the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have steadily climbed off the morning lows and are now barely in positive territory. This puts them well up on the week despite Thursday’s selling.

The Nasdaq 100 heads into the weekend currently at 5369. It hit a new all time high of 5398 on Wednesday’s bullish move. The S&P 500 trades 2382 after just barely – and briefly – topping 2400 on Wednesday.

The VIX is currently tumbling, down 6 percent to 11.11. The VXST is down about the same percentage to 9 even. There has been a lot of interesting action the VIX products and funds over the last couple of weeks as it appears that one fund has been forced to cover a huge short call position, buying calls and therefore pushing both the market and implied volatility higher.

Our traders were quite bullish at the start of the week with the Market Barometer having a reading of +8. And they remain cautiously bullish still.

Henry: Still bullish…

Chris: I think the SPX goes to 2350 in the next 2 weeks

Neil: Now that we have a little retracement underway, folks can start to believe that the end of the world is near. With that, I switch back to being Bullish. I am looking for 2440 in the S&P 500 futures (ES) for the rule of 10. Here we come.

Carolyn: We are currently testing another huge timing cluster that WARNS of a possible high, but so far our pullbacks are only similar to prior pullbacks. So even though I have a caution flag up due to cycles, I’m still going to set up the trades that the market puts in front of me on the buy side UNTIL proven wrong!!

Tony: When the Fed raises rates from historically low levels to historically low levels, you buy the break. ESH broke 1.13%. That’s the biggest break we’ve seen in a while. I remain obnoxiously bullish.

Tucker: The S&P 500 and the other indexes have paused after the HUGE move on Wednesday. If we close at or near the highs of the day today I look for the up trend to continue next week.

David: Mixed messages from the S&P 500 have us waiting for more price action to try and figure out what could be going on. It has popped out of the upside of the channel down from Wednesday’s high which we looked at last night. While that might be a warning that the decline could be corrective and the uptrend intact, the bounce, so far, is choppy, and looks corrective up. So that has us with things to place on the both sides of the ledger.

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann

Chris McKhann has been involved professionally with the stock market for more than 15 years and specifically with derivatives for 12 of those. He started as a stock broker, but quickly moved on to options and futures trading. He spent some time as the Derivatives Product Manager for TD Ameritrade. He was the chief analyst and hedging strategist for OptionMonster. He has been an options trading educator and content provider for many years. His writing and analysis has been featured on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, TheStreet, CNBC and internationally. He has also designed and traded option and futures strategies for prop trading firms and hedge funds as well as managed accounts.

Leave a Comment